In UK data, I document the prevalence of misbeliefs regarding the State Pension eligibility age (SPA) and these misbeliefs predictivity of retirement. Exploiting policy variation, I estimate a ...

Paul has been director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies since 2011. He is a columnist for The Times, and is a regular contributor to other broadcast and print media. He is a visiting professor in ...

The government has published the provisional Local Government Finance Settlement for 2025–26, setting out funding allocations for English councils next year. This confirms an important shift in grant ...

The UK’s housing market has long been a source of frustration for renters and homeowners alike, with issues of affordability and availability topping the agenda. The new government has identified ...

This paper studies tax evasion and the contribution-benefit link in the context of maternity benefits in Hungary. Earnings and employment patterns suggest pre-pregnancy underreporting, followed by ...

We estimate the impact of firm quality – primarily measured by firm productivity – on the health maintenance of employees. Using linked employer-employee administrative panel data from Hungary, we ...

We are recognised as a global centre of excellence and have been granted official ESRC Research Institute status. The Research Centre at the heart of IFS is the CPP.

We consider estimation and inference for a regression coefficient in panels with interactive fixed effects (i.e., with a factor structure). We demonstrate that existing estimators and confidence ...

Many economic panel and dynamic models, such as rational behavior and Euler equations, imply that the parameters of interest are identified by conditional moment restrictions. We introduce a novel ...

This paper develops a novel method for policy choice in a dynamic setting where the available data is a multi-variate time series. Building on the statistical treatment choice framework, we propose ...

We introduce a novel framework for individual-level welfare analysis. It builds on a parametric model for continuous demand with a quasilinear utility function, allowing for heterogeneous coefficients ...

Today, we’re turning our attention to France, where a recent Budget has sparked intense debate and raised major questions about the country’s economic future. France is tackling some big economic ...