Long-term musing: As many have suspected for some time, nowhere is inflation coming down to central bank targets of 2%. As ...

When the yield curve turns positive sloping (see blue line below since 1985), it has always been followed by months of rising unemployment (in red, since 1985, courtesy of Bravos research) while ...

In four cases (illustrated by the heavier vertical lines), the easing cycle finished with an official recession. As markets ...

Yield curve un-inversion sparks fears of stock market collapse. Historical track record seen as reliable recession predictor.

Stock market concentration and overvaluation … bond market craziness … the yield curve normalizes … are consumers healthy? … ...

Nominal market TA and risk indicators like VIX and HY Spreads kept us bullish in 2024, but 2025 shows clear and increasing ...

Explore the future direction of the global economy, analyzing key trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping its path in ...

Our 2025 economic outlook: slowing growth, strong corporate profits, Fed rate cuts, market risks, and the need for flexible ...

One year ago, most forecasts were less optimistic about the opportunity for continued economic expansion through 2024.

US data mixed; China sees some factory expansion; USD strength hurts many currencies; ETFs have spectacular year; UST 10yr at ...

An expert has projected that the U.S. economy might be headed for a recession in the new year, with timing mostly hinging on ...