An expert has projected that the U.S. economy might be headed for a recession in the new year, with timing mostly hinging on ...

We can see the economy racing toward this gaping hole in the yield curves. The first chart below goes all the way back to the 1981-1982 recession, showing many selected yield curves. Notice the steady ...

This may explain why a recession has not materialized thus far, even though the yield curve has been inverted ... below their long-term averages (see chart below). One explanation is credit ...

This assessment is based on the yield curve-based recession forecasting ... further reducing the recession start probability. The following chart tracking the probability of recession since ...

One year ago, most forecasts were less optimistic about the opportunity for continued economic expansion through 2024.

Nominal market TA and risk indicators like VIX and HY Spreads kept us bullish in 2024, but 2025 shows clear and increasing ...

An inversion of the yield curve—a chart plotting returns on debt of various maturities—historically has been a sign that a recession is on the way.

An inverted yield curve—where long-term rates fall below short-term rates—is a market watcher's five-alarm fire, and every postwar recession has been preceded by one. But here, as Boyle writes ...

asked Jerome Powell if he thinks we’ve avoided the recession that everyone [read: the media and its obsession with the supposed negative indications of the former Yield Curve inversion] was ...

A yield curve inversion, where short-term interest rates exceed long-term ones, has historically been a red flag for ...