The state space is first reconstructed by embedding the univariate time series of the response ... can be used to obtain the forecast probability density function (PDF). The ensemble approach improves ...

Traditional computational methods have two main advantages over ... This is useful for creating an ensemble forecast because you can feed it different patterns of noise as input, and each will ...

Following that, the method employs an autoregressive (AR) model, simulating the temporal levels of the cloud. Finally, noise fields are computed to generate an ensemble of different forecasts ...